Modern sports betting is beginning to look a lot more different to a decade ago. As sports themselves have become more analytical, so have the bettors.
One things that has manifested from this is a decline in casual, with broad engagement across all popular events. Instead, bettors are increasingly finding their lanes and becoming specialists. They focus their attention and analysis on specific sports leagues, and this extra effort means they end up only having time to become an expert in one sports or one league – or sometimes, just one bet type within a game. But beyond time restraints, there may be another reason…
Market efficiency and low volume markets
We often hear about the stock market being efficient, but the same logic applies to betting. An efficient market essentially means the price (or odds) are “correct” in reflecting the likelihood of an outcome. This is because of supply and demand.
In a highly popular major league like the NFL or English Premier League, there’s a lot of participation. This demand, which we’ll call “high volume”, means that odds are scrutinized by countless bettors who are all experts (because it’s a highly visible market). A ton of instant news comes out about these events, instantly, and bettors employ advance analytics too. The result is odds that are extremely accurate. This efficient market leaves fewer good value bets, which is where you believe the odds are misrepresenting the true likelihood.
Specialization is therefore about finding less popular markets, like lower league volleyball or soccer league in the developing world, in search for less efficient markets. If you can find markets with lower volume, their pricing will theoretically be less accurate. Less collective information is priced into the odds. So, obscure markets present opportunities to find good value bets. Such obscure markets can often be found on more regional betting sites, like the Belgian betFIRST.
Odds will be more volatile, because they can move more significantly in reacting to wagers. This is a well known phenomenon in stock markets, but it’s not talked about much within betting. One other thing can also emerge – with inefficient pricing, arbitrage opportunities (where odds are mismatched between different bookmakers) are more likely in the obscure markets.
Capitalizing on niche opportunities
It’s certainly easier said than done, but this is essentially what’s driving more specialists within betting. Paradoxically though, the more specialists there are, the harder it is to find lower volume markets as betting volume spreads out.
This is also a case for betting on sports you’re perhaps not well versed in initially. The reason why the Premier League receives so many bets is because so many people watch it. Just because you watch it and have good knowledge, there are millions of others that are in a similar position. To have a knowledge advantage within such a highly watched league is statistically unlikely.
So, starting from scratch is sometimes necessary. One advantage within betting can be information. So the best starting place is looking at what’s around you. For those living in Concarneau with a 20,000 population in the west of , their local soccer team plays in the third division. This is going to have relatively low betting volumes, but you could have an advantage in knowledge because you speak French, go to local games that aren’t televised, and know more than a handful of casuals that are random 10-fold accumulator.
Specialization as a calculated approach
The trend towards sports betting specialization isn’t just personal preference, but something more strategic. Of course, not all oddsmaking is supply/demand like the stock market, and so you’re still up against a big challenge (algorithms and statisticians). But in such volatile markets, interesting opportunities can arise.
